Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 11 Dec 2010 06:00 to Sun 12 Dec 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 11 Dec 2010 06:04
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

While western Europe is under the influence of high pressure with stable conditions, cool air north-Atlantic air is being transported southward into central and eastern Europe, around a low north of Poland, replacing the cold continental airmass, which however will return from Scandinavia in the next days.
The cold airmass finally reached also the eastern Mediterranean, creating unstable conditions (MLCAPE >500 J/kg) with scattered clusters of thunderstorms from the Aegean Sea all the way to Israel. Vertical wind shear in this airmass is rather weak while flow itself is rather strong with 15-25 m/s winds between 1-3 km altitude, with potential of strong gusts. Storms concentrate in persistent convergence zones stretching from the Aegean over eastern Crete southeastward, and along the Turkish, Libanese and Israelian coasts, where upslope moisture fluxes can be quite strong with a slight potential of flash floods. However, the moisture content at the western end over Crete is relatively low, so even with persistent storms the rain rates may not reach severe criteria. Given extremely steep low level lapse rates (30°/km) and 0-3 km MLCAPE (>200 J/kg), waterspouts cannot be excluded even though background winds are strong.