Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 23 Nov 2010 06:00 to Wed 24 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 23 Nov 2010 00:24
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 2 was issued for western Turkey mainly for excessive convective rainfall, large hail, strong to severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for areas surrounding a level 2 across eastern Greece, Aegean sea and western Turkey mainly for excessive convective rainfall, strong wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for western Greece, Albania and parts of Montenegro mainly for locally excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A deep large scale upper trough continues slowly spreading eastwards across east-central Europe. Its main center will be located across Baltic Sea/Baltic states on Tuesday. A robust activity along the trough axis, which affected SW-ern Balkan states with intense severe storms yesterday, will be pushed across Greece towards the Black sea.

At surface, now two separated lows will be on going. One still deepening over Poland, and large surface low over the Balkans. An attendant cold front will be pushed across Greece towards Aegean sea and western Turkish coast.

DISCUSSION

... parts of Aegean sea and western Turkey ...

Another day of unstable environment over the southern Balkans. Strong SW mid-level flow, large scale ascent ahead of the trough and healthy BL moisture with strong southerly WAA ahead of the front will be favorable for widespread convective activity, including severe storms. Those will be spreaded across the warm sector. With moderately strong shear/SREH in place and quite high MLCAPE (500-1000 J/kg locally), organized storms could support intense rain, strong to severe wind gusts gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes. Persisting upslope flow should enhance excessive convective threat especially over the complex terrain on western Turkey where level 2 seems warranted. Elsewhere, severe threat seems less robust, but still rather high.

... western Greece, Albania, parts of Montenegro and SW Croatia and Bosnia ...

Behind the main trough axis and jet streak, but still in the westerly moist flow, extreme SW Balkans will be in the spot for strong lifting onshore from the southern Adriatic and Ionian sea. However, with limited shear, storms should not be too organized and less severe then a day before. But with history of excessive rain over these areas, any additional rain could bring flash floods again. Weak LL wind field could bring some waterspouts.

In the wake of the large trough, CAA overspreads Tyrrhenian sea and much of south-central Italy, where widespread convection will be on going with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Threat seems to be very limited given the lack of shear in place. Rather high LL buoyancy, weak shear and quite steep LL lapse rates seem favorable for some waterspouts along the any costal convergence zones.