Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 29 Jun 2010 06:00 to Wed 30 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 28 Jun 2010 23:17
Forecaster: KOROSEC

A level 1 was issued for parts of south-central Ukraine, northern Moldova and northeastern Romania mainly for large hail and excessive convective rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

As previous days, a rather calm period continues across Europe. A weak ridging over much of west-central Europe, a weak upper-level low staying stationary over western Black sea and a NE-wards moving short-wave trough across northern Europe. At surface, a weak frontal boundary extends from western Scandinavia into western Europe.

DISCUSSION

Models again yield quite impressive instability especially over France, while moderate MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is likely over few areas. Mainly daytime driven convective activity is expected, aligned to local topography (e.g. Massif Central, Pyrenees, southern Alps, southern Dynaric Alps and Carpathians) where capping will be easily eroded with daytime heating. In almost no sheared environment, mostly pulsating storms will occur. Locally, a marginally large hail and flash floods threat are possible, as well as weak funnel clouds given the high LL instability, high LCLs, slow moving storms and numerous weak surface boundaries interacting together. 10-15K Delta Theta-E could locally support strong wind gusts as well. Most of the activity will diminish quickly after sunset, as instability vanishes.

... parts of south-central Ukraine, northern Moldova and northeastern Romania ...

A level 1 was issued for parts of south-central Ukraine towards eastern Romania where at least some deep and low-level shear/SREH near 15 m/s overlaps well with the instability. There, organized storms with threat for large hail and locally excessive convective rainfall are likely. A clustering into a large system is again possible towards the evening hours with some additional threat for flash floods.