Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 06 Apr 2010 06:00 to Wed 07 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 Apr 2010 18:31
Forecaster: KOROSEC

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

Today, a rather calm and stable conditions are forecast due to a building omega-like block pattern across central Europe. To its eastern side, an upper-level cut off low moves across SE-ern Europe with an attendant frontal system. Another trough/front approaches western Europe overnight on Wednesday, but only sporadic instability signals are present along the weakening cold front.

DISCUSSION

... extreme SE Balkans towards western Turkey ...

An upper-level low continues its track SE-wards towards Turkey. Ahead of this low, quite strong WAA is pushed northwards across Aegean sea and NW Turkey. With an approaching upper low and steepening lapse rates, a moderate instability will build up and convective activity seem likely near the surface front. Only marginal overlaping with mid-level jet and shear does not suggest that well organized convection to occur. However, high BL moisture content and rather slow moving storms might enhance excessive rainfall threat locally in the complex terrain of western Turkey, but no widespread activity is expected. High amount of near surface instability seem also favorable for a couple of waterspouts along the western Turkish coast.