Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 05 Apr 2010 06:00 to Tue 06 Apr 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 04 Apr 2010 16:24
Forecaster: DAHL

A level 1 was issued across the central Balkan States and the Adriatic Sae mainly for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

The central European longwave trough will continue eastbound while evolving into a cut-off cyclone over the Balkans on Monday. A cold front that is accompanying this feature will cross the Adriadic and Ionian Seas, as well as parts of southern the Balkans, which will be the focus for potentially severe convective development this period.

DISCUSSION

... Balkan States ... Adriatic Sea ... Ionian Sea ...

It seems that a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will be advected off the Sahara into the pre-frontal environment, which will mainly act to increase the capping. However, strong DCVA-related ascent should be available ahead of the upper trough, and at least scattered storms are anticipated along and ahead of the cold front. Shear profiles will be more than adequate for severe evolution with DLS in excess of 30 m/s. The strongest cells will be capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and probably also of tornadoes given 7 m/s LLS. The only negative is the strong capping and probably overall weak instability. This should limit the convective threat somewhat and a LVL1 threat should be sufficient at this time.