Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 21 Mar 2010 06:00 to Mon 22 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 20 Mar 2010 23:54
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS

A strong southwesterly flow persists over SW-central Europe between a large upper trough over the east Atlantic and an upper ridge over the central Mediterranean. Some instability is present over parts of Germany and over the Iberian Peninsula / Strait of Gibraltar but intense lightning is not expected with the developing storms.

Over most parts of SE / E Europe, stable conditions will prevail.

DISCUSSION

... North-central / northeast Germany ...

In an environment with a few hundred J/kg CAPE and 15 m/s deep layer shear, some multicells may develop. Storms could be accompanied by small hail and strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm activity will start on early Sunday morning and continues through the afternoon but lightning will be rather sporadic.

... N Morocco, Strait of Gibraltar, SW Portugal / S Spain ...

A tongue of unstable air stretches from N Morocco into the southern half of Iberia. MLCAPE should be in order of 500 J/kg but vertical shear will be relatively weak. Storms will move rather slowly which may allow a local heavy rain event. As 0-3 km CAPE is locally enhanced in a region with weak winds, a brief tornado is not ruled out but overall threat is far below the level 1 threshold.

... Other regions ...

Some isolated thunder may be observed over the coastal regions of N Norway and over the Norwegian Sea. A thunderstorm area is not warranted.

Another place with the chance of an isolated thunderstorm is southern France where some low-end instability may be created during the late morning / early afternoon hours.