Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 11 Mar 2010 06:00 to Fri 12 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 10 Mar 2010 20:38
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A very cold situation has evolved across Europe given a polar trough centred over the north Mediterranean Sea. A strong mid-level jet is pushed towards Africa and affects Turkey during the period. At low levels, low pressure systems will spread eastward over north-western Africa, the central Mediterranean, and Turkey. An additional low yields another cold air outbreak over Scandinavia. The air over most of Europe including the Mediterranean is characterized by low-level mixing ratios of about 2 to 5 g/kg. This dry boundary layer limits the potential of deep moist convection. The best potential of isolated thunder is forecast in the range of the mid-level trough centres across the North Sea and the central Mediterranean, where some showers may produce isolated lightning. To the south-west and south-east, rather moist low-level air exceeding 8 g/kg is located over Morocco and initially over the Aegean Sea, where it is replaced by drier air masses in the wake of a cold front during the day. Quite stable lapse rates limit the potential of thunderstorms and stratiform precipitation is expected to be most likely in these regions.