Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 28 Feb 2010 06:00 to Mon 01 Mar 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 28 Feb 2010 06:01
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

Please note that severe non-convective wind gusts such as expected for large portions of Germany during Sunday do not match our level critieria!

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Extra-tropical cyclone "Xynthia", initially located over the NE British Channel, is moving to the northeast while occluding. During the afternoon and evening hours, its centre will cross NW Germany and will move into the S Baltic Sea. The transition of this surface low will be accompanied by widespread severe nonconvective gusts, locally up to 35 m/s.

Another low pressure system is located near the Azores with its axis about 1000 km west of Portugal on Sunday 06 UTC. The associated upper trough will move across W Iberia where thunderstorms are forecast in a maritime polar airmass. Deep layer shear in order of 15 - 20 m/s is forecast with slightly enhanced SRH3 near the coastlines of W Iberia and strong LL shear. Recently, some convective cells are embedded in a large stratiform precipitation area that reaches SW Iberia during the morning hours. Most convection is found in the trough region where both shear and SRH are much weaker. However, an isolated tornado with one of the most intense storms is not ruled out.

Some isolated thunder over the Norwegian Sea in an environment with a few hundred J/kg CAPE and very cold upper air is not ruled out but confidence is too low for a medium probability thunderstorm area.