Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 13 Feb 2010 06:00 to Sun 14 Feb 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 13 Feb 2010 07:23
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for western Turkey mainly for some chance of a tornado.
A level 1 was issued for Albania and Macedonia mainly for some chance of a tornado.
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure area is situated over Romania while high pressure is present west of the British Isles. The cold front of the low is dragging over western Turkey, curving back into southern Ukraine. Slight instability is present.
DISCUSSION
...W Turkey...
GFS simulates strong deep convergence and conditional instability together in place for several hours mainly before noon. This could pose a risk of local excessive convective rain, but satellite currently suggests rather marginal convection. CAPE is supposed to shift to the south, where storm-relative helicity values over 300 mē/sē, deep layer shear of 25 m/s and low-level shear of >15 m/s remain present. It looks like the convection is too weak to withstand the shear, but if it does, a tornado is not ruled out under these kinematic conditions.
...Albania and Macedonia...
In the early hours of the period, a vorticity maximum associated with convection moves onshore, while GFS places the area under a jet with deep layer shear values up to 40 m/s (80 kts). SREH and LLS are more marginal. A marginal tornado threat is present if convection manages to sustain itself away from the sea. This is possible since GFS suggests instability with cold tops even deeper inland e.g. Bulgaria.
