Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 27 Jan 2010 06:00 to Thu 28 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 26 Jan 2010 22:02
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Southwestern Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

With extensive high pressure system building over the Atlantic, a prevailing strong northwesterly flow is predicted over most of Europe. In the left exit region of the embedded jet-streak, a disturbance will rapidly progress southeastwards. Another mid-level low, filled with arctic air will reside over Eastern Europe, merging with the aforementioned disturbance. From this low, a trough will be stretching towards Southwestern Europe with separate low pressure center over Iberia, moving slightly to the southwest. At the surface, a deep low is predicted with center over the Baltic Sea by Thursday morning, dividing two significant highs - over continental Russia and Atlantic. Surface low over the southern Mediterranean will slowly fill during the period. Most of Europe will be under very cold, stable airmass, unfavorable for deep moist convection apart from certain regions of Mediterranean - the Ionian, Aegean Sea and Southwestern Turkey.

DISCUSSION

... Southwestern Turkey ...

Both GFS and ECMWF models predict that on the forward flank of the low a belt of enhanced low level flow will establish over the region by Thursday 12 UTC, with windspeeds up to 20 m/s at 850 hPa level. This low level jet might become a significant feature in providing a constant fuel of moist, slightly unstable airmass to the upslope flow over the coastal mountains. Significant precipitation amounts are predicted especially over the night period Wednesday 21 UTC through Thursday 06 UTC as parallel stratiform MCS can develop with elevated storms enhancing the stratiform precipitation also further inland. MCS will slowly track eastwards with new cells developing close to the coast.