Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 25 Jan 2010 06:00 to Tue 26 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 24 Jan 2010 18:30
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large high pressure system stretches from the Azores via the British Isles towards Finland. At its eastern flank, a continental arctic airmass is advected southwestwards into east-central Europe.

Southeast of the high, an upper level cut-off low over France moves southeastwards and will lead to instability over the western Mediterranean. The chances for organised severe thunderstorms are very low as CAPE is limited to 400 - 500 J/kg and vertical shear is mostly below 10 m/s. Current thinking is that some briefly organised single- and multicell storms will develop over the Mediterranean and the Balearic Islands / Sardinia. An isolated heavy rain event and / or a waterspout is not ruled out but overall threat is below the level 1 threshold.

Another region with slight chances of thunderstorms is W Iberia. Although deep layer shear is in order of 25 m/s, marginal CAPE should preclude severe convective weather.