Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 04 Jan 2010 06:00 to Tue 05 Jan 2010 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Jan 2010 14:02
Forecaster: DAHL

No threat level issued.

SYNOPSIS

Rather shallow polar air masses have pervaded much of the European continent, maintaining a hostile environment for deep moist convection. Ahead of an Atlantic upper trough, though, a plume of subtropical air will advect across the Iberian peninsula and the western Mediterranean, which will likely be the focus for convective development.

DISCUSSION

... Iberian Peninsula ... western Mediterranean ...

It seems that minimal instability will exist ahead of the Atlantic trough which is approaching Iberia. Low-level shear is rather solid with magnitudes greater than 10 m/s, but deep shear will be mostly weak. In addition, the convection may tend to remain elevated. Altogether the setup seems to be too marginal to introduce LVL1 severe-weather probabilities.