Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 29 Jun 2009 06:00 to Tue 30 Jun 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 28 Jun 2009 20:00
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 1 was issued for E Germany, the Eastern Alps, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Pannonian Plain, W Balkans, the Dinaric Alps, mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Romania, the SW Ukraine and Moldova for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for N Poland, Kaliningrad, Lithuania, parts of belarus, and the Smolensk-Moscow Upland for large hail, severe winds and excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00... the mid- and upper-level flow over the entire continent remains weak. A weak complex mid-level low over the Balkans weakens a bit more. A frontal zone stretches from the Lithuanian/Latvian border eastward.

DISCUSSION

N Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, Smolensk-Moscow Upland...

On the warm side of the aforementioned warm front, high amounts of low-level moisture will be present with 2m dew points in excess of 20 C. MLCAPE will possibly climb to over 2000 J/kg as the boundary layer warms. Scattered strong thudnerstorms are excpected to form during the early afternoon. Despite the weak shear, the storms could produce some large hail in additions to excessive rainfall. During the evening hours the storms should gradually weaken.

E Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, W Balkans...

A broad zone of high low-level humidity and weak flow stretches across these regions. In response to diurnal
heating about 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE is expected to develop and scattered to widespread storms will ikely form. Some risk of localized flash flooding as a result of excessive rainfall will be present, warranting a level 1 for this area. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak shear should limit the risk of large hail. It is quite possible that funnel clouds or weak tornadoes will again be reported from within this zone on Monday.

Italy...

Convergent flow over the peninsula, and the presence of around 1000 J/kg CAPE will likely result in widespread thunderstorm development across the mountains again on Monday. Relatively slow motion and high, 13 g/kg, low-level humidity could lead to very heavy rain in places, before the storms weaken in the evening.

C and E Romania, Moldova, S Ukraine...

Weak flow, weak storm motion and high low-level moisture suggests that in this area, that localized severe rainfall could occur with storms forming in this area. This warrants a level 1 for this area.