Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 10 Mar 2009 06:00 to Wed 11 Mar 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 10 Mar 2009 06:35
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure is situated over Scandinavia and a meandering WNW-erly mid level flow over most of Europe. Dynamically most active are the system over Turkey and a new trough developing later in the day over the Mediterranean, mostly affecting Italy.
A zone of steep mid level lapse rates from Norway to Romania is associated with cold GFS-predicted convective cloud tops, but CAPE and forcing are weak, and lightning not very likely.
DISCUSSION
...Turkey...
Despite low CAPE (<200 J/kg), strong 0-6 km shear >25 m/s and SREH 100-250 mē/sē is capable of organizing intense storms and supercells. These may produce large hail, and also a tornado is possible given >12 m/s 0-1 km shear, low LCL <1000m and a mid level vorticity max digging into the area.
