Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 01 Mar 2009 06:00 to Mon 02 Mar 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 28 Feb 2009 22:41
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

On Sunday, overall conditions in Europe are rather hostile for organized deep moist convection. Some small areas with little CAPE are present over western Portugal and the North Sea region in the vicinity of a large upper trough. Ahead of the trough that stretches from southern UK towards the Azores, a small 40 m/s upper jet streak points towards SW Portugal.

DISCUSSION

...W Portugal / Spain...

Ahead of the approaching upper trough, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE will be created near the cold front which will affect the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday afternoon. Deep layer shear should be in order of 20 m/s but overall forcing is rather weak. Showers and weakly electrified thunderstorms may evolve but the severe threat should be marginal.

...Norway...

As the upper trough moves towards Scandinavia, wind fields at lower levels will strengthen and some non-convective gusts with wind speeds in order of 25 m/s may occur. Later on, showers and thunderstorms may develop in the trough region over SW Norway but weak shear and forcing will preclude severe weather.