Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 26 Feb 2009 06:00 to Fri 27 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 25 Feb 2009 22:32
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

While an amplified trough moves eastward into the east Mediterranean, a high ridges into western Europe. Along its northern and eastern flank, a strong upper jet streak stretches from Iceland to Germany and reaches the Alpine region during the period. A slightly unstable maritime air mass is present to the east in the range of a trough axis reaching from the Baltic Sea to Poland on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

South-western Turkey

In the range of the trough axis over the Aegean, a cold polar air mass spreads into the Aegean. Ahead of the cold front, a surface low pressure system will move eastwards just along the southern coasts of Turkey. Moist low-level air mass will likely be present in the range of this low given southerly to south-easterly surface winds. As mid-level lapse rates will be rather steep in the range of the trough, some instability will likely develop, and showers and thunderstorms are forecast. As deep layer vertical wind shear is expected to be weak in the range of the trough, organized convection is not expected. However, given steep low-level lapse rates and quite good low-level buoyancy, chance for waterspouts is forecast to be slightly higher that normal along the coasts. Thunderstorm activity will spread eastward during the day.

Aegean

In the range of the cold air mass, very steep low-level lapse rates and buoyancy as well as weak vertical wind shear will likely be favourable for waterspouts. Limiting factor is weak low-level convergence, weak QG support, and rather weak low-level moisture. An isolated waterspout is not ruled out, though.