Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 15 Feb 2009 06:00 to Mon 16 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Feb 2009 23:18
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

A deep, quasi-sationary upper long-wave trough is covering the eastern half of Europe and western Russia, with a sturdy upper ridge/high building over the E Atlantic/W Europe. At low levels, more or less deep polar ais is present over much of central and southern Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Ionian and Aegean regions ...

Some convection will likely exist across the S Ionian/Aegean regions in the thermal-trough region where the polar air will be deepest. However, unfavorable low-level trajectories will likely result in quite dry and deeply-mixed boundary layers ... resulting in allover shallow cloud depths and accordinlgy weak electrification. Quite strong low-level lapse-rates should be in place, but anticipated high LCLs should reduce the threat for waterspouts, and a categorical threat does not seem to be necessary at the moment.