Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 Feb 2009 06:00 to Sun 15 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 13 Feb 2009 23:20
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

On Saturday, the dominant feature for deep moist convection will be a large upper trough over the eastern Mediterranean. This feature is surrounded by a 40 m/s 500 hPa jet streak which stretches from Belgium via southern France and Sardinia towards NE Tunisia, Libya, Crete and SW Turkey. Ahead of the trough and in the vicinity of the upper level cold core, some low-end instability will be in place.

Although marginal instability exists, electrified convection is not expected over eastern Europe as a cold and dry continental airmass spreads southward.

DISCUSSION

...Aegean Sea, SW Turkey...

In the morning hours, remnants of a MCS or some multicells will move across SW Turkey. As some hundred J/kg of CAPE are present and DLS in order of 25 m/s is expected near the upper vort-max, isolated large hail and severe gusts should be possible. Although forcing will decrease in the late morning / early afternoon, some storms will be able to produce strong to severe gusts. LLS in order of 12 - 15 m/s will be in place and locally enhanced SRH may allow an isolated tornado as well. Severe local flooding may occur as storms may persist for some hours in the same region. A marginal level-1 threat should be warranted. During the late afternoon / evening hours, the chances for severe weather should decrease as the surface low moves northward into a region that is dominated by cold and stable air.