Forecast Update
Valid: Sat 17 Jan 2009 15:00 to Sun 18 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 17 Jan 2009 15:03
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER / PUCIK

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

Linearly organized convective elements have formed on the southern flank of an intesifying low to the northwest of Ireland. As the low proceeds its northeastward motion, so will the convective lines. Very strong (directional) wind shear ahead of the primary line may cause some miso/mesocyclones to develop with the line as well as small bowing segments. A few tornadoes may occur and some (very strong) wind gusts may be enhanced by organized convection. As the overall coverage of organized convection will likely remain very limited, we will only issue a level 1, even though the overall weather situation is very dangerous because of the strong non-convective winds.