Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 11 Jan 2009 06:00 to Mon 12 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 10 Jan 2009 23:48
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A zonal upper flow pattern has established over the northwestern and western parts of Europe with a strong cyclone approaching the British Isles during Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the upper trough, moderately warm and moist air is advected towards southern Scandinavia and a few hundred J/kg CAPE should be available. A strong 35 m/s low level background flow will likely support some non-convective / convectively enhanced gusts exceeding 34 m/s over the Scottish Sea. Because of uncertainties in strength and position of the LL moisture field, a threat level is not issued.

The main feature for convective activity on Sunday will be an upper trough centered over the N Maghreb States. A 60 m/s upper jet streak circulates around this low with its left exit region over Tunisia. Recent model runs show some weak CAPE near N Tunisia / central Mediterranean in an environment with about 15 m/s deep layer shear. Severe weather exceeding the LVL1 threshold is not expected. Sporadic lightning will likely be observed with these storms.

Very cold and stable conditions will prevail over large portions of central / eastern Europe.