Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 04 Jan 2009 06:00 to Mon 05 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 03 Jan 2009 22:55
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A weak upper trough over the western Mediterranean will move eastward during the period. Moist and unstable air with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE in the wake of the trough is advected eastward towards NE Algeria / Tunisia. Weakly electrified thunderstorms with a marginal hail / gust threat will likely develop in an environment with less than 20 m/s DLS.

Later in the period, an upper vort max over NE Algeria / Tunisia will provide some QG forcing near Sicily where convection should develop in an environment with some hundred J/kg of CAPE during the evening / night hours. Deep layer shear in order of 15 m/s may allow organized storms with marginally large hail. An isolated funnel / waterspout cannot be discounted but minimal thermodynamic support should preclude severe weather exceeding the level 1 threshold.

A low pressure system near Greece is forecast to move eastward into the Aegean while weakening. Weak forcing, but 15 - 20 m/s deep layer shear are forecast in a region with about 500 J/kg MUCAPE. A few low-end severe events (gusts / hail) are not ruled out but a threat level is not warranted. Compared to the storms in the western Mediterranean, lightning activity should be marginally stronger.