Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 12 Dec 2008 06:00 to Sat 13 Dec 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 11 Dec 2008 17:15
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

And yet again, arctic air spreads southeastwards over the NE-Atlantic, reinforcing the pool of low geopotential heights over W-Europe thereinafter. As coldest air just sneaks in from the NW on Saturday 06Z, not much attention was paid to that airmass. The rest of Europe is more or less in a transition mode as large-scale increase of geopotential heights, downstream of the approaching trough starts a weakening trend of numerous mid-/upper level lows over southwest/central Europe. Cold and stable conditions persist over NE-Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Mediterranean ...

Beneath those weakening lows, environment remains conducive for areas with enhanced thunderstorm activity. Neither mid-level CAPE dispersal nor shear justify an enhanced wording regarding organized thunderstorms. The west/southwest coast of Turkey could see an isolated waterspout as LL CAPE release is somewhat augmented and shear quite weak so a marginal level area was drawn. The same just off the coast of SE Italy. Thunderstorm chances also increase over the far SW Mediterranean after midnight, but nothing severe is forecast.

... E-Atlantic ...

The cold and modified arctic airmass approaches the western bound of our forecast area and chances for deep convection increase constantly, but confidence is low that more than a sporadic/very short lived thunderstorm event will occur and no area was highlighted.