Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 05 Sep 2008 08:00 to Sat 06 Sep 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 05 Sep 2008 08:11
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook, issued at Thu 04 Sep 2008 18:13.

DISCUSSION

This update was mainly issued to include the missing level area over Poland and Belarus.

Latest model guidance indicates that environment for organized thunderstorms could become very favorable on a regional scale, including extreme E-France/W-Germany and another update may be issued during the day. The main change was a slight northward shift of the risk level in concord to the latest QPF output.

Regarding the tornado threat over S-UK, directional shear will be somewhat meager although low LCLs and at least low-end SRH could still support an isolated tornado development but risk is still too marginal for a broad level area.