Forecast Update
Valid: Wed 25 Jun 2008 10:00 to Thu 26 Jun 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 25 Jun 2008 10:25
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast

DISCUSSION

NE France, Western and central Germany...

Convective initiation is underway across NE France and will likely develop into an MCS that moves eastward across Germany. The air-mass ahead of the storms contains high low-level moisture with dew points near 20 degrees which yield 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. In combination with about 20 m/s deep-layer shear the environment is supportive of strong supercells and intense bowing lines. These have the primary threat of producing intense damaging winds and large hail. The threat of tornadoes appears to be somewhat limited despite the low LCL heights, because low-level shear is not very strong. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out though.

Eastern Germany, Poland, Czech Republic...

Storms will likely develop during the afternoon over these areas also. Stronger low-level shear and higher helicity indicate a higher threat of tornadoes across this area than further west in addition to a damaging wind and large hail threat. If tornadoes develop, they may be strong.

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