Forecast Update
Valid: Sat 31 May 2008 10:00 to Sun 01 Jun 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 31 May 2008 10:00
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to original forecast...

DISCUSSION

Have slightly adjusted the level 1 area to include NE Netherlands and SE Bavaria.

Rapid boundary layer recovery is expected over N Germany, so that or the order of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely form again. Shear should be sufficient for well-organized multicells and perhaps a few supercell storms, that may well develop into another MCS moving westnorthwestward later today, probably in the evening. The main threats of such a system would be flash flooding, large hail and localized damaging winds.

Very steep lapse rates observed in Bavaria suggest that any storm that develops during the afternoon may produce large hail. Isolated damaging winds are not ruled out either.
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