Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 30 May 2008 14:00 to Sat 31 May 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 30 May 2008 14:30
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook issued at Thu 29 May 2008 23:08 Z.

DISCUSSION

.... Germany ...

And yet another update become necessary mainly for SE Germany, including almost all of Bavaria .

Latest sounding report of Munich reveals a weakly capped and very unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE values near 2200 J/kg and SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Radar data indicates a rapidly developing line of storms over far SW Bavaria / S - Baden - Württemberg, moving NW-wards. Otherwise, most parts of Bavaria still get a few more hours of insolation. Current readings over Bavaria are between 25 and 30°C and dewpoints between 13 and 18°C and widespread 29 - 31°C will be likely during the next few hours. A negative effect could be anvil debris from currently ongoing storms over parts of Austria but we think that forcing could easily offset missing insolation as temperatures are already very high. WRF - GFS now also develops some convective precipitation along and north of the Alpes as a weak vorticity lobe crosses the area from the S during the afternoon and evening hours. As capping is very weak and a few CUs are already present in latest HIVIS images we think that chances for a few thunderstorms increased that much to justify an update / upgrade. The combination of shear, instability release ( especially in the potential hail growth zone ) and some backing point to a signficantly enhanced large hail risk with each more discrete thunderstorm.

... The rest of the level - 2 area ...

12Z sounding data over W - Germany are not impressive but as described in the main outlook, mid - level lapse rates will steepen somewhat during the evening and night hours. Fog still covers a broad area with limited insolation but this field of low stratus shows more and more breaks so still a few hours of insolation expected. All this combined should still yield strong instability release during the afternoon and evening hours, which combined with the shear and intense backing is more than adequate for severe hail.

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