Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 30 May 2008 09:00 to Sat 31 May 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 30 May 2008 08:53
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook issued at Thu 29 May 2008 23:08 .

DISCUSSION

... Germany ...

Latest IR / VIS and radar images show no significant convection going on over the bulk of the level - 1 and level - 2 areas right now. Temporarily clearing is now underway over SW Germany as convective debris from overnight's thunderstorms vanishes. 00Z soundings continue to show a warm column below 750 - 800 hPa so without any forcing and placement under the right exit region of a weak UL jet over NE Switzerland / W - Austria , initiation should take some time ( likely during the midday hours ) although developing Cu fields over N - Baden - Württemberg and parts of the Black Forest can be already seen. The main reason for this update is to expand the level areas somewhat towards the east over central Germany as strong diabatic heating is underway and readings up to 31°C at the surface will be likely. Although no real forcing is present during the afternoon hours, strong heating could be enough for initiation. The model pool has still substantial uncertainties how far north the thunderstorms will develop but strong insolation after LL fog dissipation over W - Germany should be enough for thunderstorms to develop. So all in all not too many changes were done as some uncertainties remain but with the most widespread coverage still expected during the evening and overnight hours. Environment is conducive for numerous severe hail / a few significant large hail reports.

Chances for thunderstorms over SE Germany are not excessively high but we still think that a few isolated thunderstorm will develop along the N - Alpine region moving slowly northwards as forcing gets stronger during the day. Large hail and a few severe downburst wind gust events will be possible so we decided to stick with a level - 1.

We also made a few adjustments over NW Italy and S - Austria.
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