Forecast Update
Valid: Sat 19 Apr 2008 15:00 to Sun 20 Apr 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 19 Apr 2008 15:00
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook issued at Fri 18 Apr 2008 21:50Z .

DISCUSSION

...Pannonian Plain...

Subsidence behind upper vorticity maximum over W Ukraine into central Romania is inhibiting more than isolated convective development, except for E Austria and N Hungary, where kinematic support for severe weather is somewhat weaker than further south. Hence a downgrade of the threat level from 2 to 1 over E Hungary, W Romania and N Serbia appears to be in order. Present thinking is that isolated weak storms will likely continue for a few more hours, but will then gradually weaken.... and that the more clustered activity will weaken somewhat slower.Until then, some large hail and strong winds can be expected and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either, given the relatively strong low-level shear.