Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 31 Mar 2008 06:00 to Tue 01 Apr 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 30 Mar 2008 19:57
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday morning at 06:00 UTC... an elongated trough will stretch from northern Scotland to NE Spain, where a cut-off low develops and proceeds SE ward to reach S Tunesia on Tuesday morning. At the same time a weak complex low centrered over the northern Aegean Sea remains more or less stantionary. A strong westerly mid-level jet streak moves over the British Isles during the latter half of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

British Isles...

In the lower troposphere a narrow warm sector/warm conveyor belt is collocated with the in the exit region of the mid/upper jet streak. The associated cold front will likely be accompanied by some convection that should pass Ireland during the evening and into Scotland/northern England overnight. Some strong winds, possibly exceeding 25 m/s, are expected, but convection should play a relatively minor role in producing those, so that we refrain from issuing a threat level.

...W Mediterranean...

Ahead of and in vicinity of the cut-off low moving southeastward over the area, thunderstorm development is expected. It appears that the best shear and the best -but still weak- instability will stay removed from each other, reducing the severe potential of the storms. Nevertheless small hail is possible with storms that develop in the polar air mass that moves southward in the wake of the trough.