Extended Forecast
Valid: Mon 03 Mar 2008 06:00 to Tue 04 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 01 Mar 2008 20:53
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Upper level longwave trough over northwestern Europe will affect major parts of central Europe on Monday while an upper high is building farther upstream. At its eastern flank, cold airmass is advected towards western-central Europe. Weak cyclogenesis is expected over southern Poland and northern Italy on Monday evening. Rather shallow convection should evolve over southern Poland where strong winds at lower levels may lead to some marginally severe gusts. Cold air convection is expected over large portions of the British Isles, France, the Benelux countries, Germany and over the coastal areas of north-central Norway. Weak vertical shear and forcing as well as low theta-e are not favourable for thunderstorms with reasonable lightning. Best chances for lightning should exist over the Gulf of Biscay where GFS simulates some hundred J/kg of CAPE and equilibrium level cloud top temperatures below -50°C.