Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 28 Feb 2008 06:00 to Fri 29 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 27 Feb 2008 19:21
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A broad frontal zone os present over Europe. Embedded short-wave troughs/jet streaks are expected to weaken during the period. While cold and stable low-level air mass will remain north of the frontal zone, a tongue of very moist air mass spreads into France and south-western Germany ahead of a weak upper trough. However, instability will be low and given weak forcing, thunderstorms are not expected. Over Mediterranean, weak upper troughs move eastward. Affected air mass is rather stable. Weak CAPE is forecast in the range of the trough centers, i.e. over Aegean Sea, and over Iberian Peninsula.

DISCUSSION

Iberian Peninsula

In the range of the propagating cut-off low, rather steep lapse rates will be present in response to diurnal heating. Together with some low-level moisture that is expected to spread eastward, CAPE is forecast to develop. Given weak CIN, thunderstorms are expected to form during the day. Given weak vertical wind shear, severe convection is not expected. Thunderstorms will likely decay after sunset.