Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 27 Feb 2008 06:00 to Thu 28 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 26 Feb 2008 22:18
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A southward displaced frontal zone, running from central France to the Alpes, and to Belarus only shifts more towards the south during the period, separating a more humid and warmer airmass to its south from a much drier and colder airmass to its north and west. A sharp short-wave trough embedded in the flow moves eastward into Belarus and Ukraine. In the wake of this system, a moderately strong mid-level jet points towards central Europe.
Associated surface low over southern Scandinavia is expected to weaken. Given weak instability and weak forcing in the range of the cold air mass, thunderstorms are forecast to be unlikely.

To the south of the frontal zone, weather over the Mediterranean remains mostly dry and stable except for a small cut-off low entering Iberin Peninsula that may support dep convection.

DISCUSSION

Western Spain

Some low-level moisture has developed over Iberian Peninsula indicated by latest ascends. In the range of the propagating cut-off low, rather cold mid-level air mass will likely destabilize due to diurnal heating. Expect that some showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon hours. Given weak vertical wind shear,severe convection seems to be unlikely. Thunderstorms will rapidly weaken after sunset.

The Netherlands, NW-Germany, parts of central Germany, north-west and central Poland

Please refer to extended outlook which can be found in the archive.