Extended Forecast
Valid: Tue 26 Feb 2008 06:00 to Wed 27 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 24 Feb 2008 20:06
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

Upper level shortwave trough over the Norwegian Sea is forecast to travel eastward. An intense gradient flow will be present over the British Isles, the North Sea and Denmark as the associated surface low moves towards Scandinavia, while weakening. A vigorous low level jet with 30 to 35 m/s at 850hPa stretches from Scotland via the North Sea towards northern Denmark. Numerous gusts may exceed 25 m/s in the aforementioned region but there are no signals for a substantial release of instability in the vicinity of the low level jet. A categorical threat level seems not warranted. Showers and thunderstorms with sporadic lightning may occur in the cold polar airmass in the wake of the trough.

A weak upper trough over Morocco will shift eastward. Some hundred J/kg of CAPE should be available but weak forcing and very weak vertical shear should preclude severe weather. Diurnal driven thunderstorms should develop over Morocco, Algeria and extreme southern Spain.