Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 25 Feb 2008 06:00 to Tue 26 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 24 Feb 2008 20:33
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 0600 UTC, the most important large-scale feature in the European is a slightly meandering jet near the 55 degree parallel. A shortwave trough stretches from Sweden to central Germany, and a ridge is located over Great Britain. A mature 960 hPa surface low on the northern Atlantic is expected to move eastward and reach the waters north of Scotland on Tuesday morning. At the same time its frontal system should then be entering continental Europe and Scandinavia.

DISCUSSION

Southern Iberia, Morocco, Northwest Algeria...

Just to the south of Portugal an upper-level low is moving southward before moving eastward into central Morocco during the second half of the forecast period. Slight upward vertical motion ahead of this feature and strong insolation over the Atlas mountains and the southern Spanish cordilleras will probably lead to scattered thunderstorms. Shear and CAPE are forecast to be rather small, limiting the storms severity. Nevertheless, some small hail and subsevere gusts are possible, most likely over Morocco.

British Isles, Benelux, South Scandinavia

The frontal system of the Atlantic depression is forecast to cross the British Isles during the evening and overnight before reaching the continent during the next morning. Passage of the cold frontal zone may be accompanied by some linear convection, but a well-organized squall line appears unlikely at the moment. Still, > 25 m/s are likely, but these should not primarily be caused by convection.