Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Feb 2008 06:00 to Wed 20 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Feb 2008 23:44
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

An upper trough west of the Iberian Peninsula will advect warm and moist airmass to Iberia and the western Mediterranean. This airmass is characterized by low level mixing ratios around 9 g/kg as well as mid level lapse rates slightly above 6 K/km and will contain about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Recent soundings from Portugal and southern Spain show rich LL moisture, moderate lapse rates and low CIN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the day when an upper level vort max approaches western Portugal. GFS simulates low LCL heights and strong low-level buoyancy, indicated by more than 100 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE that may allow some funnels and short-lived tornadoes over Portugal in the early afternoon. As time goes by, entrainment of a dry airmass in the lowest 2 kilometers and sunset should limit the low-level buoyancy and attendant funnel / tornado threat should diminish.
A persistent low level jet pointing to the south coast of Portugal should support low level moisture inflow. Heavy precipitation may cause local flooding.