Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 18 Feb 2008 06:00 to Tue 19 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 17 Feb 2008 19:11
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Monday at 06:00... a broad zone of high pressure over western and central Europe and an outbreak of cold air over eastern Europe leave little opportunity for convective storms. The exceptions are 1) the eastern Mediterranean where the arctic air flows over much warmer water, and 2) where unstable subtropical air is advected northward into western Iberia.

Western Iberia...
A westerly subtropical jet is located south of 35 degrees N. A weak vorticity maximum initially located around 1000 km west of Portugal and moves eastward during the forecast period. As it approaches, the southwesterly flow into the Iberian Peninsula is expected to increase somewhat, as well as forcing for upward motion. 400-800 J/kg of CAPE should generally be available in the air-mass in which scattered thunderstorms are expected in the indicated area. Deep-layer (0-6 km AGL) shear is forecast to be moderate in the south of the area, on the order of 15 m/s. This suggests that a few well-organized multicell storms are possible. The attendant chance of severe weather appears too small to issue a threat level.

Eastern Mediterranean...
On Monday morning convection within the should be deep enough to produce a few lightning strikes. However, stabilization should quickly set in from the west restricting convection to a shallow layer below a subsidence inversion.