Extended Forecast
Valid: Mon 18 Feb 2008 06:00 to Tue 19 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 16 Feb 2008 21:44
Forecaster: TUSCHY

No major changes on the European weather map as split flow regime continues during the forecast period.
Thunderstorms won't evolve neither under the CAA regime over eastern Europe nor under the huge high pressure area over the rest of Europe. Parts of Portugal and Spain alone have the chance to see convection during the forecast period.
A combination of a broad low pressure area northwest of Portugal and a strong zonal subtropical jet, positioned just south of Portugal and Spain foster an environment for scattered thunderstorms.Diffluent streamline pattern and placement under a 30-40m/s upper-level streak avouch scattered to widespread thunderstorm development in a weakly capped environment. Numerous mesoscale boundaries should serve as foci for persistent thunderstorm re-development, also assisted by a persistent 10-15m/s LLJ from the SW.Lapse rates at mid-levels and rich mositure content in the boundary layer ensure stronger updrafts and surface based activity in the level-1 area with an attandant severe weather threat.Enhanced helicity values in the lowest 3km hint on an isolated tornado and hail threat.
Instability tapers off rapidly well inland and so does the severe weather threat.
Favorable upper-level dynamics and a persistent LLJ pointing to the south coast of Portugal support copious amounts of rain over southern Portugal and extreme SW-Spain for a prolonged period.