Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 16 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sun 17 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 15 Feb 2008 21:57
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

It looks like a rather quiet period courtesy of a sturdy high-pressure area that is sprawling across most of the European continent. However, an Atlantic upper trough with a concomitant SFC low will begin to affect western Iberia late in the period.

DISCUSSION

... southwestern Iberian Peninsula ...

GFS is reluctant to place positive/deep CAPE over western Iberia in plume of warm/moist air advecting northwards east of the Atlantic trough. Though mid-level lapse rates are forecasted to increase per GFS 12Z, LL moisture will not improve appreciably. However, Friday's 12Z launch from Gibraltar was rather susceptible to deep convection, provided a limited amount of deep-layer lifting ... which is not inconsistent with GFS's solution, however. Thus there seems to be no reason to distrust the GFS solution, and the thunderstorm area over SW Iberia will be dropped.