Extended Forecast
Valid: Sat 16 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sun 17 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 14 Feb 2008 23:04
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

A tongue of 40°C theta-e is advected towards southwestern Iberia during Saturday afternoon. Southeast of the upper level cut off low between the Azores and the Canary Isles, a jet streak with 60 m/s at 300hPa will travel northeastward while weakening and splitting. Its left exit region will reach southwestern Iberia in the late evening hours.

In the wake of a large upper longwave trough over eastern Europe, cold air convection may produce some isolated flashes. Best chances for lightning should exist over the southern Black Sea / Bosporus region on Saturday evening where steep mid level lapse rates and great parcel layer depths are forecast.

DISCUSSION

extreme southwestern Iberia

Low level moisture convergence may enhance instability and some hundred J/kg almost uncapped MLCAPE should be available. Although 0-6 km deep layer shear is forecast to stay below 20 m/s, storms may benefit from moderate QG forcing in the left exit region of the jet southwest of Iberia. Multi-cellular storms will tend to cluster during the evening hours. Downward momentum transport may allow some isolated severe gusts as 20 to 25 m/s wind speed at 700hPa are forecast. Main convective activity will likely stay outside of our forecast area and therefore a level-one threat is not warranted ATTM.