Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 15 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sat 16 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 14 Feb 2008 21:21
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

Very cold airmass overspreads large parts of eastern Europe. Some decent signals for instability are present in the left exit region of an intense northerly jet over the Baltic Sea. Deep layer shear should exceed 30 m/s over parts of Poland and Lithuania but weak low level moisture and buoyancy should preclude severe weather. Isolated thunder could be observed over parts of eastern Europe but expected storm coverage is too low for a thunderstorm area.


A warm and moist airmass from Spain is advected towards western Mediterranean where rising geopotential heights, weak vertical wind shear and mid level WAA will likely suppress deep moist convection.

In the vicinity of an upper level cut off low near the Azores, moderate instability with 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE will partly overlap with 20 m/s deep layer shear. Some thunderstorms may reach extreme western Iberia but the focus for convective activity is out of our forecast area.