Extended Forecast
Valid: Fri 15 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sat 16 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 13 Feb 2008 21:07
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

Upper level cut off low near the Azores will move southward. At its eastern flank, warm and moist air mass is advected northward and a few hundred J/kg of CAPE will likely be present in this air mass between the Azores and Iberia. 0-6 km deep layer shear will likely stay below 15 m/s and additionally weak forcing suggests that severe weather is rather unlikely. Some isolated lightning may occur westerly of Portugal but the focus for thunderstorm activity will be out of our forecast area.

Isolated thunder may also occur southwesterly of Sicily where low-end instability in an environment with weak vertical shear is expected.

An intense jet streak over the Baltic Sea with wind speeds up to 70 m/s at 300hPa is forecast to travel southward. Recent GFS runs show some instability in the left exit region over the Baltic Sea on early Friday afternoon where deep layer shear is forecast to exceed 30 m/s. Low level shear may be frictionally enhanced but severe weather is not expected given too little low level buoyancy.