Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 13 Feb 2008 06:00 to Thu 14 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 13 Feb 2008 10:01
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A large high pressure area covers most of Europe, except northern Scandinavia, Turkey, and the area southwest of Portugal. Stable conditions prevail over land. Isolated thunder may be observed in small convective cells throughout the Mediterranean Sea, with the highest chances south of Sicily, west of Crete and near southern Turkey.

Finland...

More interesting is the deep convection occurring in the morning and afternoon over northern and western Finland. Under a strong vorticity maximum and jet stream, convection has developed behind the cold front.

Current VIS imagery shows convection organized into a line. GFS model indicates very good 0-3 km CAPE values and cold enough echo tops that allow strong updrafts, and though a rare occurrance in winter, regions east of the Gulf of Botnia can experience some lightning from clustered convection. Currently (9Z) the most active convection appears at the mid-level cold front indicated by strong gradients in the 2-4 km lapse rates.

With the existance of 13 m/s shear vectors in the 0-1 km layer and more than 40 m/s shear vectors over the 0-6 km layer, potential exists for mesocyclone formation in cells with attendant threat of tornadoes. Also severe gusts can be expected, especially from linearly arranged cells.