Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Feb 2008 06:00 to Wed 13 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 Feb 2008 09:54
Forecaster: TUSCHY

Stable blocking persists over Europe. As a result only a few regions could see a somewhat enhanced convection risk.


...Parts of Finland...

Beside decreasing instability values in the past few model runs, not much has changed in the overall set-up. As surface cold front anticipates the mid-level front, an atmospheric column of about 3km above ground experiences rapid steepening lapse rates below an inversion level of 700hPa. GFS still has a belt of increasing LL instability release ahead and along the frontal boundary and coupled with intense forcing, a sharp cold front with embedded convection looks likely. In addition the level-1 area is placed under the left exit region of a quite strong mid-level streak resulting in impressive mid-/upper-level divergence values.Forecast soundings indicate a rapid mixing of the boundary layer, supportive for surface based convection. LL shear of 10-15m/s and 0-1km helicity values up to 160 J/kg point to an isolated funnel / tornado threat. The main risk will be strong gusts and marginal hail. We decided to replace the thunderstorm area with a level-1 as updraft strength could be too weak for lightning generation.

...Central Mediterranean...

A broad belt of numerous thunderstorms currently goes on and is forecast to continue during the forecast period. No organized thunderstorm risk expected with those storms.

A few thunderstorms southwest of Portugal and enhanced convection over Belarus under the southward moving upper-level low will be too sparse for a thunderstorm area.