Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 11 Feb 2008 06:00 to Tue 12 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 10 Feb 2008 22:35
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC...the large scale flow pattern is blocked, featuring a large intense mid/upper anticyclone centered over the southern British Isles. A rather dry, but not very cold air-mass is present over the European continent. Somewhat moister air is present over the southern Mediterranean. A weak mid/upper level low over the Tyrrhenean Sea moves slowly southward.

DISCUSSION

Central Mediterranean Sea...

Weak CAPE is present in the vicinity of relatively moist air over the south-central Mediterranean. Convective storms, probably already ongoing, will likely increase somewhat in coverage as forcing for upward motion ahead of the aforementioned southward-moving low becomes collocated with the moister air in the south. Low CAPE and moderate wind shear should provide very little room for severe weather to develop.

Eastern Mediterranean Sea...

Low-level convergence of relatively moist air is expected to persist near a weak surface cyclone located east of Crete. Slight to moderate instability should continue to sustain storms during the forecast period. Spin up of the generally high surface vorticity may lead to a couple of waterspouts, which marginally warrants a level 1.