Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 09 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sun 10 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 08 Feb 2008 21:07
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

Omega-like upper flow pattern is present over large portions of Europe with a stout ridge stretching from Morocco to the Baltic Sea. At its western flank, an occluding intense surface low pressure complex south of Greenland will remain almost stationary. The northern parts of its cold front, initially located near Iceland, will arrive at coastal areas of Norway later in the period. Over southern Aegean, an upper level cut off low will lead to unsettled conditions.

DISCUSSION

eastern Mediterranean

Some 200 to 500 J/kg almost uncapped SBCAPE should persist near Crete. Kinematic conditions are forecast to be rather quiescent, except for the favorable deep layer shear in order of 15 to 30 m/s which are available near the left exit region. Forcing due to moderate DCVA should allow multi-cellular storms and clusters to develop, capable of producing isolated hail and gusty winds. T / Td in order of 16°C / 12°C, good LL buoyancy and almost dry adiabatic low level lapse rates may allow isolated waterspouts. However, chance for severe weather is too low for a categorical risk.
Farther upstream, low-end instability and a low level jet with 850hPa wind speeds near 20 m/s could lead to some non-severe gusts.