Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 07 Feb 2008 06:00 to Fri 08 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 06 Feb 2008 18:33
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Trough over central Europe rapidly cuts off into Adriatic during the period. As a consequence, west European high ridges into central Europe and connects to east European high pressure. Stable air mass is forecast to dominate most of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Southern Adriatic to southern Aegean

Rather rich low-level moisture is indicated by latest soundings over southern Adriatic and Aegean. While convectively mixed air mass is present over Aegean in the range of weakening upper cut-off low, air mass is stable to the west. During the period, upper height falls at the cyclonic flank of strong upper jet streak curving around the developing cut-off will likely result in neutral to slightly unstable mid-level lapse rates. At lower levels, some forcing is expected ahead of a cold front that moves into Adriatic during the day. Latest models indicate some instability especially over the southern Adriatic that may be sufficient for deep convection. Given strong QG forcing and quite rich boundary-layer moisture, expect that showers and thunderstorms will form along the frontal boundary spreading south-eastwards. Given weak vertical wind shear, thunderstorms are forecast to be short-lived and quite unorganized. Low-level buoyancy is also expected to be rather weak, and chance for waterspouts is forecast to be low.