Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 04 Feb 2008 06:00 to Tue 05 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Feb 2008 21:24
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Monday at 06 UTC... an elongated mid/upper-level trough stretching from north of Ireland to southeast France moves eastward behind a meridionally-oriented cold front. Ahead of the front southerly onshore flow is expected to sustain some deep convection along the Italian west coast and the western Balkans. Behind the front, ahead of the trough, deep convection is expected over the Bay of Biscay and southwest France. During the afternoon a cold core low is expected to cut off from the trough over southeast France and move towards southern Italy. In response, cyclogenesis is forecast over northern Italy. The associated cold front will likely activate over the Tyrrheanean Sea and a few thunderstorms will likely form. In all mentioned convective areas, severe threat will be low given moderate shear and very small CAPE.