Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 03 Feb 2008 13:00 to Mon 04 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Feb 2008 12:55
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Ref. convective forecast from 2 Feb 2008.

DISCUSSION

... N Spain ... W France ...

Thunderstorms have formed along the cold front associated with the Atlantic upper trough, having reached the western Biscay and NW Iberia early Sunday afternoon. Radar data suggest that this line is quite strongly forced and of linear nature. Given that intense deep-layer synoptic- and mesoscale forcing is simulated to persist, this line may exist for some time to come. Given somewhat reduced temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula compared to the eastern Atlantic, the line may persist especially over the Biscay and weaken over N Spain and immediately downstream over the southern Biscay. Still, some threat for marginally severe wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado or two persists, especially over extreme N Spain and later also over extreme W France.