Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 02 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sun 03 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 02 Feb 2008 00:18
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

Upper trough over central Europe, accompanied by a weakening SFC low pressure complex over northern Scandinavia, will propagate westward. Another cyclone, initially located about 1000 kilometres northwesterly of the British Isles, is forecast to move eastward.
A frontal boundary is stretching from western Russia via Poland and Austria towards northern Spain, separating maritime polar air mass to its northwest from rather warm and moist air to its southeast.

Some low-end instability will form over SW Mediterranean ahead of a weak upper trough. Lapse rates and vertical shear do not seem to be favourable for any kind of severe weather.
Over eastern Europe, stable conditions will prevail.

Convection over the eastern Aegean should produce only sporadic lightning and thermodynamic fields as well as deep shear are not favourable for severe weather.


DISCUSSION

...North Sea...Denmark...

An upper level vort max will overspread the post-frontal air mass early in the period. Given some low-end instability, showers and thunderstorms will likely evolve. Although deep shear is quite marginal, QG forcing could aid storm organization and a convective line may develop. Best chances for lightning are expected between Denmark and southern Norway where greatest parcel layer depth is forecast. Quite steep LL lapse rates and enhanced LLS should give a slight chance of an isolated funnel / tornado but overall threat is too marginal for a categorical risk.