Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 31 Jan 2008 06:00 to Fri 01 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 30 Jan 2008 21:23
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Atlantic long-wave trough evades into north-western Europe. Underneath the trough center, an intense surface low will move into northern North Sea during the period. Strong winds will affct a widespread region. To the south-east, weak high is present from the Mediterranean to eastern Europe. Stable conditions are forecast over most places. In the range of a weak upper low that moves north-eastward over central Mediterranean, models indicate some instability over southern Adriatic. Chances for thunderstorms seem to be quite low, though, as deep convection is limited by rather warm mid-level air masses.

DISCUSSION

North Sea region and British Isles

The long-wave trough is filled with moist maritime air mass that is convectively mixed due to rather cold mid-level air mass. This slightly unstable air mass will spread into British Isles and North Sea during the period. Although deep instability is only expected over the northern regions, instability may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms along the cold front of the intense low pressure system. Given very strong low-level vertical wind shear and locally favorably veering profiles, some shallow mesocyclones capable of producing tornadoes are not ruled out. However, the chance seems to be rather low due to rather weak low-level convergence and only weak CAPE/low-level buoyancy.